Topexperts in the field of geology can be found working at the United States Geo-组卷网

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Top experts in the field of geology can be found working at the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Their web page on earthquake prediction starts: “Neither the USGS nor any other scientific institution has ever predicted a major earthquake. We do not know how to do so, nor do we expect to know how to do so, anytime in the foreseeable future.” If we can predict hurricanes, floods and tornadoes to different degrees of reliability, why can’t we predict when the next big earthquake will likely happen? What else can scientists do if they are so difficult to predict?

An effective earthquake prediction includes four components: the date, time, location, and the magnitude. To determine how a possible early warning sign translates into these factors requires scientists to either look for patterns in previous earthquakes or create complicated mathematical models of the movement of known tectonic plates (地壳结构版块).

For the first case, scientists have attempted to link multiple natural factors that appeared before earthquakes in the past with the earthquake itself. These factors include rising levels of ground water, changes in electromagnetic activity, and even unusual animal behaviors.

However, even if scientists can draw connections between these changes in nature and earthquakes, very little evidence has been collected to suggest that one event must happen alongside another. Another difficulty is that small earthquakes and large ones start exactly the same way. Thus, there is no simple solution to identifying whether an early warning sign predicts a major, destructive quake or a tiny tremble. Without enough evidence, scientists may instead attempt to model specific fault lines (断层线). However, this is incredibly challenging, given the difficulty in studying how rocks and minerals behave at the increased temperatures and pressures toward the Earth’s core. Even though geologists have drilled deep holes to study the conditions, such efforts are expensive and not at all easy to accomplish.

【小题1】According to the passage, which may help predict earthquakes?

A．River water.

B．Close observations.

C．Movement of any plate.

D．Strange activities of dogs.

【小题2】What can we infer from the last paragraph?

A．Studying rocks is full of challenge.

B．Natural changes don’t affect each other.

C．Scientific models are expensive to build.

D．Early warning signs don’t imply earthquakes’ strength.

【小题3】How does the passage develop?